Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.296234 1.469955 1.654033 1.863167 2.093716 2.339652 2.621373
2025-01-19 1.019622 1.250999 1.511837 1.825989 2.192314 2.604170 3.100336
2025-01-26 0.852937 1.126918 1.454051 1.869441 2.378512 2.977524 3.730740
2025-02-02 0.713081 1.014095 1.394332 1.902272 2.554527 3.354907 4.401132
2025-02-09 0.589709 0.903465 1.322711 1.911194 2.701414 3.710093 5.076767
2025-02-16 0.491152 0.810565 1.261663 1.925829 2.856195 4.088123 5.813080
2025-02-23 0.394150 0.703469 1.166145 1.881232 2.926064 4.360239 6.433295
2025-03-02 0.307255 0.595737 1.053847 1.797774 2.931545 4.543870 6.947519
2025-03-09 0.254162 0.532708 1.000219 1.794219 3.050574 4.893536 7.715462
2025-03-16 0.206204 0.468771 0.935247 1.764051 3.125084 5.182975 8.416309
2025-03-23 0.179787 0.439343 0.924014 1.819195 3.336145 5.688528 9.464207
2025-03-30 0.143357 0.381730 0.853539 1.764627 3.364326 5.916056 10.109344
2025-04-06 0.116684 0.339431 0.807068 1.750841 3.466322 6.278147 11.003809
2025-04-13 0.093456 0.298510 0.756145 1.722125 3.539881 6.600459 11.858477
2025-04-20 0.080499 0.278974 0.745742 1.768874 3.750223 7.160413 13.124467
2025-04-27 0.068674 0.258909 0.730719 1.804552 3.943648 7.705060 14.397733
2025-05-04 0.057285 0.236310 0.705778 1.816532 4.093643 8.185028 15.591263
2025-05-11 0.048028 0.216847 0.684523 1.833313 4.253829 8.692385 16.857854
2025-05-18 0.037889 0.190271 0.640002 1.792640 4.296747 8.993197 17.787553
2025-05-25 0.028454 0.161446 0.582774 1.714094 4.254493 9.135032 18.447264
2025-06-01 0.023237 0.146246 0.559511 1.711972 4.369272 9.572700 19.648717
2025-06-08 0.018329 0.129504 0.527689 1.683967 4.425657 9.902535 20.672059
2025-06-15 0.016044 0.123744 0.528203 1.737863 4.664480 10.594721 22.383507